The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) offers most recent forecast for the global economy in its September Interim report on Economic Outlook. Over the next two years it expects:
- Global growth will stabilise, but the recovery is precarious. The growth rate will be steady broadly at 3.2% across 2024 and 2025. Many G20 countries have experienced solid growth, supported by decreasing inflation, rising real incomes, and relaxed monetary policies, which have boosted demand.
- GDP growth in Australia is projected to slow to 1.1% in 2024, then modestly rise to 1.8% in 2025, driven by a rebound in real disposable incomes that will boost household consumption. The ongoing downturn in China’s real estate sector and reduced consumer demand might affect the Australian exports.
- Headline inflation in the Euro area is expected to decline from 5.4% to 2.4% in 2024, and ease back towards 2.1% across 2025. Inflation in the US is projected to ease to 2.4% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025. Inflation is expected to return to target levels in the majority of G20 nations by late 2025. As inflation slows and labour market pressures decrease, monetary policy rate cuts should proceed.
- Australia’s headline inflation is projected to fall from 5.6% to 3.4% in 2024, and to 2.4% in 2025. In comparison to other similar economies, inflation in Australia is expected to be more persistent. Consequently, monetary policy is anticipated to stay tight in the near future to control the persistent inflation particularly in the services sector.
OECD Economic Outlook, selected countries (September 2024)
| |
|
2023 actual |
2024 forecast |
2025 forecast |
| Real GDP growth, % |
World |
3.1 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
| |
G20 |
3.4 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
| |
United States |
2.5 |
2.6 |
1.6 |
| |
Euro Area |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1.3 |
| |
Australia |
2.0 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
| |
|
|
|
|
| Headline Inflation, % |
G20 |
6.1 |
5.4 |
3.3 |
| |
United States |
3.7 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
| |
Euro Area |
5.4 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
| |
Australia |
5.6 |
3.4 |
2.4 |
